By: Alex Madsen
The cold thin air stings the faces of the 80,000 faithful filling the steel bleachers of their beloved college team. The band plays the almighty alma mater before the hometown boys gush out of the tunnel like water out of a hose. This is different than the average home game; this is playoff football.
The new College Football Playoff format will be in effect for the second season. Instead of only having the top four rated teams, 12 different teams will receive a bid to compete for the title of National Champion. The five highest ranked conference champions will automatically receive a bid, along with at-large bids reserved for the next seven highest rated teams. This allows smaller “Group of Four” teams to compete for a title. Last season the top four conference champions received a bye; this season it will be the top four rated teams regardless of whether they won their conference.
The Top 12
Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
The Buckeyes are the defending National Champions after they defeated Notre Dame 34-23 in the Championship last year. Coach Ryan Day lost studs QB Will Howard and RB Treyvon Henderson last season but retained the best WR in the nation with Jeremiah Smith. Freshman QB Julian Sayin and RB Bo Jackson (no relation to the 80’s superstar) have been more than adequate as Ohio State has rolled over the BIG 10 this season. The nail-biting contest against Texas in week one showed what these players lack in experience, they make up for in composure and talent.
I predict the Buckeyes will make a deep run this winter. However, the lack of strength in schedule will be potentially devastating, as the Buckeyes will go against SEC teams who play top rated schools weekly. This will most definitely be a concern, most notably with the lack of standouts in the BIG 10 outside of Indiana. Ohio State will need to lean on something aside from natural talent to potentially go back-to-back.
Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
Coach Curt Cignetti has done the impossible for the second straight season. The Hoosiers haven’t been a respected program despite their 138-year history. Coach Cignetti is actively changing this notion. Last season he led Indiana to a stellar 11-1 regular season record before losing to Notre Dame in the first round. The Hoosiers have only gotten better with Heisman Candidate QB Fernando Mendoza leading the helm. Cignetti also improved the O-Line and secondary this offseason via the transfer portal. Indiana has played a decent schedule with wins over Illinois, Iowa, and Oregon.
I predict the Hoosier will go further than the first-round exit like last year. Mendoza has proved that he can perform under pressure after driving down the whole field with under a minute remaining to squeak past Penn St. I expect the Hoosiers to be better equipped to deal with the juggernauts of the SEC, but I would be surprised if they brought home a ring. I think the ceiling is the National Championship, but no ring. The floor is yet another disappointing first round playoff exit. The BIG 10 Conference Championship game will likely dictate the feelings entering the playoffs.
Texas A&M Aggies (11-1)
Coach Mike Elko has accomplished the restoration of this once great program. Elko joined the Aggies after coaching the Duke Blue Devils for a couple of successful years. In his first year at College Station, Elko was playoff bound before the Aggies dropped all three of the remaining games left. Since last year, the Aggies have added several key WR in K.C Conception and Mario Craver along with the Heisman level QB Marcel Reed. A&M has several quality wins, including beating Notre Dame (in South Bend), Missouri, and LSU. They might not have the same level of competition as their SEC counterparts, but the Aggies make up for that with their brand of physical blue-collar football. Don’t count this Texas A&M offense.
The loss to Texas definitely threw a wrench in plans for the Aggies undefeated season. Reed struggles against pressure, along with man coverage. If teams can apply the necessary pressure to speed up Reed’s timing, then A&M will have a tough time rebounding. The rushing attack is alright, but we haven’t seen it against a team that is strong excluding Texas. I would say the ceiling for Elko’s Aggies would be a semi-final appearance.
Georgia Bulldogs (11-1)
If there were only three quarters of football instead of four, the Bulldogs wouldn’t be on this list. Georgia has been the definition of a second half team this season. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as it shows that Head Coach Kirby Smart has trained the players to deal with terrific pressure. However, a big concern is whether the Bulldogs can remain within reach whenever a better team takes a lead. The Dawg’s defense has been the highlight, along with QB Gunner Stockton becoming a standout dual threat. Now, they will face archrival Alabama in the SEC championship game.
The Georgia Bulldogs will try and do everything they can to bring home a fifth national title. They lost to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl last season after Kirby Smart got outcoached and outplayed. The Bulldogs will have to lean in heavy on the physical and intelligent offensive line protecting Stockston, and giving him enough time to dish out long shots to the receiving corps. They will need to utilize RB Nate Fraizer in the playoffs. I’d say, if everything goes right, Georgia could find themselves in the title game. If everything goes wrong, a first round exit is imminent.
Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)
Perhaps the coaching carousal drama surrounding Head Coach Lane Kiffin potentially leaving Oxford had distracted us from the Rebs’ vast array of talent. The fact of the matter is that this Rebel squad is the best one ever under Kiffin’s helm. Despite being a pass first offense, RB Kewan Lacy has been outstanding by often leaving five yards and a cloud of dust each and every rush. QB Trinidad Chambliss has also been good whilst battling injury. Defense will be the end of all, be all. If the defense holds up, this is a very dangerous and threating Ole Miss squad.
If Chambliss and Lacy can handle the pressure and correctly execute, the Rebels will lean on the duo heavily this postseason. Taking care of the ball by reducing turnovers has been a strong point by Kiffin, and it’s paid off as the Rebels have only tossed three interceptions from the QB1. Even without Lane, this team will remain deadly. The defense will determine the ceiling and floor. The offense is explosive enough to claim the ceiling in a semi-final or even potentially a National Championship game appearance. If the defense is lackluster, I would count the Ole Miss Rebels a longshot to make it past the first round.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2)
Head Coach Marcus Freeman has Awakened the Echoes. The runner-up from last year’s NCAA National Championship game has been playing with vengeance, aggression, and spite after getting off to a slow start. Notre Dame barely lost the first two matchups to two top 15 teams (Miami and Texas A&M) by a combined score of 4. The Irish have since won out, going 10-0 with wins over ranked USC, Navy, and Pitt. RS Freshman QB CJ Carr is a standout pocket passer. The poise and leadership Carr displays is not often seen at his age. Who can discuss Notre Dame without talking about Heisman caliber RB Jermyiah Love and RB Jadarian Price? The duo is notorious for terrorizing opponents from the backfield. The Irish defense has gotten back on track after a rocky start to Chris Ash’s tenure. Playing quality offense (limit 3-and-outs) and shutout defense will combine talent with the genius of Marcus Freeman.
I predict Notre Dame will once again be a serious contender this January. Notre Dame is one of the few teams that refuse to lower a standard, despite a lesser opponent (ex. 70-7 win over Syracuse, 49-10 win over Navy…) which will be extremely beneficial in the playoffs. This team plays to win from whistle to whistle. The floor for the Irish is a lackluster defense allowing a stellar QB to dismantle the secondary, resulting in a quick and painful exit. The ceiling is a National Championship.
Oregon Ducks (11-1)
Head Coach Dan Lanning has been exceptional throughout his (now four-year) tenure in Eugene, possessing an impressive 45-7 record. After the tragic early season loss to Indiana, the Ducks have won out and are looking to compete in the first round of the playoffs. They will most likely host, which is a huge advantage in today’s climate. QB Dillion Gabriel has had huge shoes to fill after Bo Nix left. He has filled them comfortably, although not being a Heisman candidate. This Oregon team isn’t as flashy as their uniforms; however, they excel in playing good fundamental football.
The Ducks have yet to establish a viable rushing attack against a quality opponent, so that will most definitely be a concern in the playoffs. The defense has been alright, but once again, hasn’t faced staunch competition. The early season upset of Penn St. doesn’t look as good with the Nittany Lions disaster of a season. I predict the Oregon Ducks will either get upset at home in the first round or receive a second-round exit.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1)
The Red Raiders have plowed through a wide open Big 12. The only loss of Texas Tech’s season came in heart-breaking fashion against Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State Sundevils. LB Jacob Rodrigez has been outstanding, and many consider him a Heisman candidate despite being a sole defensive player. Many compare Rodrigez to legendary LB Manti Teo. Aside from the loss, the Red Raiders have yet to have a really close game. On the contrary, the strength of schedule is lackluster in the Big 12 no matter who you are.
Strength of schedule is the biggest concern for Texas Tech. They will be a lock even if they somehow find a way to blow the Big 12 championship game against BYU as 14.5 favorites. This Red Raider team is a HUGE sleeper this season and will surprise people. They will receive an automatic bye if they clinch the Big 12 and will be looking at the first-round winner. I predict this Texas Tech team has an opportunity to make the National Championship if things go right. If things don’t go right, they can still count the 2025 season as a success.
Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
Boomer! Sooner! The Oklahoma Sooners have played much better this season after getting standout players in the transfer portal. The two losses have been embarrassing after getting blown out by Texas in the Red River Rivalry and torched by Ole Miss. The offense will be the X-factor in the postseason, after the defense has shown great improvement. QB John Mateer will have to lead a deadly air attack if the Sooners want to go far.
Oklahoma is likely to host the first round of the playoffs. Despite being a higher seed, the Sooners will be upset watch as they will likely take on deadly teams. I don’t think the Sooner offense will be able to keep up with the hardnosed rushing defenses of Juggernauts. A first round exit is most likely, but a semifinal appearance might be a late Christmas present in Norman.
Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has been desperately attempting to fill the gigantic shoes left by Hall of Fame legendary coach Nick Saban. So far, DeBoer has done a fair job, despite what social media says. After getting upset in the season opener against Florida State, QB Ty Simpson has led the crimson tide to nine victories and only one loss in SEC play. Simpson has a plethora of receivers who made the job much easier, most notably Germie Bernard. The lack of a definite rushing attack has dampened the offense against more physical defensive lines. DeBoer is basically set in stone for his first ever playoff berth, even if the Crimson Tide lose to Georgia in the SEC championship game.
The victory over Georgia in week four has been the definite highlight of the season, even eclipsing the nail biter Auburn Iron-Bowl drama. Alabama is hoping to ride the momentum to defeat the Bulldogs and receive a first round bye. The Crimson Tide has proven to be lethal airing the ball out, opting for a more vertical approach as opposed to the traditional Alabama RPO. This has been somewhat successful (except in the loss to Oklahoma), but the rushing attack has been lackluster without the dual threat of a short pass. If Alabama’s talented receiving core can win the matchup against opposing secondary, then a 14 National Championship will be possible in Tuscaloosa. However, if the Crimson Tide is well covered and forced into pressure, then the reliance will be placed on the above average defense. If there’s one thing we’ve learned in past College Football Playoffs, a team cannot rely on a single aspect of the game; both sides must contribute. The ceiling for Alabama is a National Championship. The floor is a first round exit.
North Texas Mean Green vs Tulane Green Wave- AAC Conference Championship
The ‘group of five’ conference championship games have never meant more than now. The new playoff format allows a G5 team to withhold the 12th seed, allowing an opportunity paired with a haul of cash towards the university. In a ranked matchup, #24 North Texas will take on #20 Tulane.
The Tulane Green Wave scavenged through the AAC conference except for the brutal 26-48 loss to UTSA. Dynamic dual threat QB Jake Retzlaff has provided quality throws while also delivering on the ground. He does seem a little interception prone though. The Green Wave defense features a great defensive line and a stellar LB in Chris Rodgers. Tulane struggles against air raid teams. Newly hired Florida Head Coach Jon Sumrall has perfectly balanced the offense 59% pass to 41% rush attacks.
North Texas Mean Green has surprised everyone in college football, as the no recruit star (who never played a snap at QB in high school) redshirt freshman QB Drew Mestemaker now leads the FBS with 3,835 passing yards. Mean Green Head Coach Eric Morris has developed a lethal air raid offense that would make Mike Leech blush. North Texas has played a significantly harder schedule than Tulane, with significant wins over quality opponents like UTSA, Navy, Rice, and Temple. The lone loss came in a blowout to South Florida early in the year. HB Caleb Hawkins is nothing to scoff at either, as he captured 23 rushing touchdowns this season. The Mean Green defense has been decent, which is often unappreciated considering the high tempo vibrant offense North Texas has. LB Ethan Wolowski has 90 tackles, 2 forced fumbles (1 return for T.D) and an interception.
I would be shocked if the underdog North Texas Mean Green lost to Tulane. North Texas’s air raid defense will pick apart the Tulane Cover 3 defense with shallow, well timed throws from Mestemaker. The Mean Green defense might have trouble against the balanced dual threat approach from Retzlaff. However, the Green wave likely will have to adjust toward a pass heavy offense if the physical run stopping North Texas front six show up. I predict a North Texas victory, along with a Mean Green playoff berth in the 12th seed.
